Housing Market News & Updates

Hello everyone. Welcome back to the Mortgage Rundown. Today we are going to talk about what’s happening with interest rates.

Last week we had another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where interest rates were left unchanged. The overnight rate from the Federal Reserve continues to sit in the range of 5.25 to 5.5% since July of last year. Not a lot came out of the meeting other than the appearance that the Fed will likely NOT raise rates from here and there is still a decent chance they drop rates one or two times before the end of the year.

That was enough to end a four-month losing streak for rates as the 10yr came off the high of 4.7% for 2024.  Right now, the 10yr is a shade under 4.5% and we should see it trade in a tighter range until we get more data on inflation and the jobs market. 

If you look at the chart on your screen you will see the 10yr over the past couple of years. The high was 5% in October of last year and the high for 2024 was that 4.7% mentioned earlier. Could this be the beginning of rates trending lower finally?

The Future of Rates

Looking ahead we do have CPI data coming out next week for April. We expect the headline number to be flat to slightly down and hopefully the core number does drop from last month. If that is the case, then this could be the beginning of a long slow drop in rates; with the high watermark for rates now behind us.

That’s it everyone from the capital markets desk this week. Thank you all for watching and have a great day.

Homebuyer Resources

Current Mortgage Rates

Loan Options

Mortgage Calculators

Hello everyone, welcome back to the Mortgage Rundown. Today we are going to talk about what’s happening with interest rates.

2024 has not been the year everyone was expecting so far. Treasury rates are actually up nearing 90bps since the end of 2023.  Taking a look at the graph on your screen, you can see that the 3 Year Treasury is up 87bps since January 12^th. 

The prospects of the Federal Reserve lowering rates 3 times or more has been basically eliminated as a possibility with inflation still stubbornly above the Fed’s target. Last week headline CPI was up 3.5% year-over-year-old vs the market’s expectation of 3.4% and more importantly, core CPI was up 3.8% vs the market’s expectation of 3.7%. 

It may be only a 0.1% difference, but it was a reminder to the market that inflation is very stubborn and the Fed doesn’t need to move quickly thanks to a pretty resilient economy and job market.

Speaking of inflation, next week is the more important PCE for March, which may confirm the stubbornness of inflation and likelihood that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. As of today, the market is only pricing in 1.5 Fed moves this year vs the original three that the FOMC had projected. 

Is the market overreacting to the CPI report or will inflation continue to bounce around these levels and give the Fed sufficient ammunition to keep rates higher for longer? We will likely find out next Thursday when PCE comes out.

That’s it everyone from the capital markets desk this week. Thank you all for watching and have a great day.

Homebuyer Resources

Current Mortgage Rates

Loan Options

Mortgage Calculators